Annual Market Outlooks
2016
In previous years, we’ve produced a longer Market Outlook that details what happened in the prior year and what we expect to unfold in the upcoming year both from a macroeconomic perspective and within each asset class. In light of the volatile start to 2016, we've delayed releasing this year’s Market Outlook as markets tended to change in rather dramatic fashion from one week to the next in the first quarter of the year. Being that it's nearly mid-April, 2015 seems like old news and we thought it would be better to make this year's outlook a summary of our expectations for the remainder of 2016. We believe the below events are likely to occur, and while portfolios are positioned accordingly, we certainly aren't counting on any one particular event to make or break portfolio performance.
Read the entire Market Update.
2015
In this era of unprecedented circumstances and unintended consequences we recognize that allocation across asset classes and geographies remains very important. Returns are not linear and at times come from the most unexpected places. As advisors, we are constantly examining our managers and the various set of scenarios that will impact their returns. A meteoric rise in domestic equities has made this quite challenging. If history has taught us anything, it's that making predictions can be futile and that we should expect the unexpected.
Read the entire Market Update.
2014
The macroeconomic concerns of recent history were few and far between in 2013 as investors quickly adapted to a risk on environment where optimism around global growth increased throughout the year. Central banks maintained their easy monetary policies but the Fed began the infamous taper in December during Bernanke's last FOMC meeting after effectively creating a midyear taper scare. While the European Union made efforts to repair its banking system, the risk of a peripheral country leaving the Eurozone was all but eliminated. Abenomics weakened the Yen and the Chinese continued their efforts to stabilize their economy for the next phase of growth. Emerging markets struggled but most major equity indices were up +20% for the calendar year. Bond markets suffered their first decline in 14 years in anticipation of Fed tapering and the potential for higher interest rates. In the paragraphs below, we try to outline what all of that means for the year ahead and highlight our expectations for certain asset classes.
Read the entire Market Update.
2013
The "Three Risks" heading into 2012 (the European sovereign debt crisis, the fiscal cliff in the U.S., and a potential slowdown in China) have been postponed at the very least, and the potential for a severe drawdown across capital markets has been reduced. Central banks across the globe have pumped their respective financial systems with liquidity in an effort to fight off overleveraged private sectors and restore growth to ailing economies. While questions still remain about the efficacy of these quantitative easing programs, the world's largest economic regions present unique investment opportunities as negative macroeconomic concerns subside.
Read the entire Market Update.
In previous years, we’ve produced a longer Market Outlook that details what happened in the prior year and what we expect to unfold in the upcoming year both from a macroeconomic perspective and within each asset class. In light of the volatile start to 2016, we've delayed releasing this year’s Market Outlook as markets tended to change in rather dramatic fashion from one week to the next in the first quarter of the year. Being that it's nearly mid-April, 2015 seems like old news and we thought it would be better to make this year's outlook a summary of our expectations for the remainder of 2016. We believe the below events are likely to occur, and while portfolios are positioned accordingly, we certainly aren't counting on any one particular event to make or break portfolio performance.
Read the entire Market Update.
2015
In this era of unprecedented circumstances and unintended consequences we recognize that allocation across asset classes and geographies remains very important. Returns are not linear and at times come from the most unexpected places. As advisors, we are constantly examining our managers and the various set of scenarios that will impact their returns. A meteoric rise in domestic equities has made this quite challenging. If history has taught us anything, it's that making predictions can be futile and that we should expect the unexpected.
Read the entire Market Update.
2014
The macroeconomic concerns of recent history were few and far between in 2013 as investors quickly adapted to a risk on environment where optimism around global growth increased throughout the year. Central banks maintained their easy monetary policies but the Fed began the infamous taper in December during Bernanke's last FOMC meeting after effectively creating a midyear taper scare. While the European Union made efforts to repair its banking system, the risk of a peripheral country leaving the Eurozone was all but eliminated. Abenomics weakened the Yen and the Chinese continued their efforts to stabilize their economy for the next phase of growth. Emerging markets struggled but most major equity indices were up +20% for the calendar year. Bond markets suffered their first decline in 14 years in anticipation of Fed tapering and the potential for higher interest rates. In the paragraphs below, we try to outline what all of that means for the year ahead and highlight our expectations for certain asset classes.
Read the entire Market Update.
2013
The "Three Risks" heading into 2012 (the European sovereign debt crisis, the fiscal cliff in the U.S., and a potential slowdown in China) have been postponed at the very least, and the potential for a severe drawdown across capital markets has been reduced. Central banks across the globe have pumped their respective financial systems with liquidity in an effort to fight off overleveraged private sectors and restore growth to ailing economies. While questions still remain about the efficacy of these quantitative easing programs, the world's largest economic regions present unique investment opportunities as negative macroeconomic concerns subside.
Read the entire Market Update.
